Ukraine Update July 3-9
Hello everyone, it's time for the weekly Ukraine update.
500 days have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine started.
It has been the most bitter time in the history of independent Ukraine. But in these 500 days, the geopolitical agenda has changed, as has the domestic agenda of many countries that have stood up for democracy.
Ukraine has changed its image; in the words of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Ukraine "inspires" the world; Ukrainians have proven that we are not victims, but fighters for our destiny. And most importantly, over these 500 days, Russia has not achieved any of the military goals it announced on February 24, 2022.
Ukraine is waiting for the NATO summit next Wednesday. There is a faint hope that Ukraine will be invited to join the alliance. But real accession to NATO is possible after the war and after overcoming domestic problems and carrying out many reforms. There is growing support for Ukraine's accession, but many members of the alliance are still afraid of a confrontation with Russia.
Let's be honest, the Ukrainian army has shown the highest standards of fighting, learned to work with the weapons provided by the West, and the Ukrainian government has settled many bureaucratic issues. But ending the war and truly eradicating corruption are the main tasks on the way to NATO. To gather support before the summit, Zelenskyy visited the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Turkey, and today he is meeting with the president of Poland. During these days he is holding talks with many European leaders.
Society is discussing the provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine. As a human being of course I am not supportive of using this type of weapon in war. As a Ukrainian, I understand that it is already used by Russia. Just yesterday they shelled cluster munition at Lyman killing at least 9 and injuring at least 12 people. Ukraine has developed the rules of use of these weapons to help prevent the worst damage for civilians. We are obliged not to strike in Russia, to transparently report and control these weapons, not to strike the urban areas. Ukraine never wanted destruction and war. Russia has come as a deadly disease killing us just for being us. Metaphorically talking, is not this weapon a chemo that can save a patient with cancer?
Five commanders of the Azov regiment, who were held in Turkey after the exchange last year, have been returned home. The Kremlin said this was a violation of the exchange agreement, and the Azov commanders said they would return to the front. On Saturday night, they attended a large prayer service in Lviv.
Lviv was in all the major publications last week as one of the three most attacked cities. You may recall that I wrote about the researcher Sviatoslav Hnizdovsky: he lives in Lviv, became a father during the war and together with his 5-month-old daughter and wife woke up shocked when a missile explosion occurred 200 meters from his home. His office was heavily damaged. I was stunned by his story. But many people were much less fortunate. Under the rubble, 10 people were found dead and fifty more injured. Earlier this week, Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina died after the attack on a pizzeria in Kramatorsk. It's a terrible story. She had been rescued from there with the help of Anna Kovalenko we mentione below.
Russia has launched similar attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Pervomaisk, Kharkiv region, and Lyman, Donetsk region. Everywhere there is a lot of destruction, civilian casualties, and injuries. Over the past day, Russia has shelled 9 regions of Ukraine, including my home region of Kherson.
Ukrainians are still concerned about the situation at the ZNPP. But the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the threat is decreasing. This does not guarantee that Russia will not commit some kind of provocation, because they are constantly raising this topic both in international organizations and in the public space, trying to accuse Ukraine of a possible "provocation" in advance.
Russia has brought 700,000 children from the conflict zones of Ukraine into Russian territory, the head of the international committee in the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house of parliament, has said. Grigory Karasin said on his Telegram messaging channel late on Sunday:In recent years, 700,000 children have found refuge with us, fleeing the bombing and shelling from the conflict areas in Ukraine.It’s scary how Russians play with numbers. Earlier Moscow was talking about 300 000 stolen Ukrainian kids. Ukraine has identified around 20 000 of them and returned over 300 only.
Russian domestic chaos can benefit Ukraine, that has been defending from the brutal invasion for 15 months. Though Kyiv was strongly advised by Western allies “don’t rock the boat” and “don't get drawn into internal matters or strike” inside Russia, the high internal tensions can turn into military advantages for Ukraine on the frontline.
By launching his mutiny Wagner PMC boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s opened the Pandora’s box. The myth of the monolithic power vertical of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime has been shattered. Russian authorities have been bragging about their military might and national unity for dozens of years. After the mutiny there are at least three Russian military powers and all of them oppose each other.
The Russian regular army and law enforcement agencies support the Kremlin. Prigozhin's private military machine can choose sides, as we have observed during the mutiny. And then there are the anti-Putin volunteers, such as the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Russian Freedom Legion, which are fighting on the side of Ukraine and have conducted special operations inside Russia.
Wagner showed that if a revolt is possible in Putin's vertical, Ukraine may actively try to find help among others: potential allies may appear in the Russian army, intelligence, or even among the leadership.
"This rebellion undermined Putin's authority. It could not have happened without Russian special services. The opening and closing of the criminal case against Prigozhin, and the fact that he was allowed to leave the country, indicates that there are levers of pressure on Putin," - a senior source in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry tells me on condition of anonymity.
Ukrainian army and intelligence services can now use conflicts among the Russian military to help de-occupy territories.
“The Prigozhin rebellion disoriented the Russians, especially the political leadership - this is important for planning various operations and can help Ukraine in its counteroffensive," - said Anna Kovalenko, former Deputy Head of the Presidential Office for Defense and former Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive indeed intensified and made some gains on the day of Prigozhin’s rebellion, June 24, particularly in the Bakhmut direction. Symbolically, Bakhmut had been captured by Wagner fighters back in May. But this Ukrainian counteroffensive was a pre-planned operation, my sources in the Ukrainian armed forces tell.
Wagner mercenaries used to be the most aggressive of Russian fighting forces. After capturing Bakhmut they were withdrawn to restore their combat capability. The regular Russian army took their positions and Prigozhin's private troops no longer had much influence on the fighting.
Most Russian soldiers on the frontline were in an information vacuum. From intercepts, Ukrainian intelligence has seen that the Russian soldiers began to take an interest in the events in Russia only closer to the evening of the rebellion. However, as soon as confusion started setting in amonth them, the mutiny was over.
During the rebellion Prygozhin’s fighters shot down a number of Russian helicopters and an Il-22M airplane, an airborne command post used to coordinate and control troops."The enemy has lost equipment and trained pilots. This is always a plus, especially given Russia's dominance in the sky," - said Kovalenko. British MoD added that “these special mission aircraft have played a key role in orchestrating Russian forces in their war against Ukraine.”
However the most important advantage Ukraine has gained from Prigozhin’s rebellion is not military, but political. When Russia is undermined by domestic problems and Putin's vertical begins to crack, it diverts focus and energy from the war in Ukraine and foreign affairs. The instability of Putin's regime raises the question of whether Russia can continue fighting for long.
To domestic issues. Ukrainian authorities have charged a former top security official with treason, says Kyiv’s domestic intelligence agency. Oleh Kulinich, who headed the security service of Ukraine’s (SBU) Crimea directorate, was arrested last July over accusations of recruiting other Russian-friendly operatives on orders from Moscow. If convicted, Kulinich faces up to 15 years in prison.
Also this week, the whole of Ukraine celebrated the 50th birthday of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army General Zaluzhnyi. He had birthday on the 500th day of the war with a flash mob on social media. 50 is a good age for the victory, is not it?
I would like to draw your attention to another Fund founded by an American and operating in Ukraine. Andrew Bain has been in Ukraine for many years and started it to help Ukraine defend against Russian aggression in Donbas. In 2022, the Fund operated even larger and brings help to the most difficult regions of Ukraine. You should check it - @Ukrainian_FF
Wishing you a peaceful weekend,
Iuliia Mendel