Ukraine Update June 26-July 2

Hello everyone!

I hope your weekend is going well. The Russians attacked Kyiv today for the first time in 12 days. They sent drones against us, and Ukrainian air defense shot down three Kalibr missiles in the Southern region. The situation in the frontline areas is very tense - in the last 24 hours, the Russian army shelled my native Kherson region 86 times, wounding 5 civilians, including 3 children.

In Ukraine, two topics remain the most important: the scandal over the failed mutiny of Wagner boss Prigozhin slowly getting quieter, and Ukrainians preparing for a possible accident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

I published an oped in Kyiv Post about how Ukrainians react to the news about ZNPP, given the fact that we were the country that already suffered one of the largest nuclear disasters in the world – at Chornobyl NPP in 1986:

“When she” [my mother - IM] “was four months pregnant with me the Chornobyl disaster happened in 1986. On April 26, together with my father she was having a relaxing walk in a park in Zaporizhzhia on his birthday; they were both studying at the medical university.

My mother and father, were still young aged 25 and just turned 27, started the walk wearing white cloths and finished it dressed in gray. My Mom told me this story many times in my childhood, holding a grudge against the Soviet government, which had concealed the extent of the Chornobyl disaster. For the next 5 months, she was afraid that I would be born with missing organs or some kind of disease. There were a lot of rumors about the effects on newborns in Soviet Ukraine, but there were no reliable statistics to back them up.”

The world is discussing Prigozhin's rebellion and its possible consequences. The name of General Surovikin is being mentioned a lot, who, according to the New York Times, may have been aware of Prigozhin's plans but failed to warn Putin. Social networks and the media have been trying to find out all week whether it is true that Surovikin has been detained or exiled. You can read more about it here. In parallel, U.S. sanctioned the gold companies suspected of funding Wagner group.

Last week, another Russian missile hit a residential building in Ukraine - in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region. This missile strike claimed 12 lives, including three children. More than 60 people were wounded. The mother of two 14-year-old twin girls was looking for wedding dresses to bury them in. These are the stories we will probably tell our grandchildren someday.

There are successes at the front. Ukraine's counteroffensive continues. Ukrainian forces have reportedly crossed the Dnipro river and re-took territory on the left bank of Kherson region, in a move that paves the way for a future possible advance towards Crimea. According to pro-Russian Telegram channels, Ukrainian troops have seized the village of Dachi, opposite the city of Kherson, and near the destroyed Antonivskyi Bridge. They have dug in and are seeking to establish a bridgehead, the channels said.

CIA director, on secret trip to Ukraine, hears plan for war’s endgame. During meetings in Kyiv, William Burns was told of Ukraine’s ambitious goal to retake territory and push Moscow into talks by the end of the year. Publicly, Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration with critics of the pace at which the counteroffensive has played out thus far. But in private, military planners in Kyiv have relayed to Burns and others bullish confidence in their aim to retake substantial territory by the fall; move artillery and missile systems near the boundary line of Russian-controlled Crimea; push further into eastern Ukraine; and then open negotiations with Moscow for the first time since peace talks broke down in March of last year, according to three people familiar with the planning.

In preparation for the fall, Zelensky and top aides have begun thinking about how Kyiv can force an end to the fighting on terms that are acceptable to Russia and the Ukrainian people, who have been subjected to a year and a half of violence, forced displacement, atrocities, and food and electricity shortages.

In an ideal scenario favored by Kyiv, Ukraine’s military would gain leverage over Russia by advancing troops and powerful weapons to the edge of Ukraine’s boundary with Crimea — holding hostage the peninsula that is home to Russia’s prized Black Sea Fleet.

The last news I want to share are about the domestic issues. There is a scandal about the newly appointed leadership of ARMA – Ukraine’s Asset Recovery and Management Agency.  The amjority of trusted Ukrainian anti-corruption activists were dissapointed with the results of a competition for the top position at the agency and found violations in the process. Olena Duma, 42, served in at least 16 positions and did not gain an image of honest civil servant. In 2020, under Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Duma has left the Social Insurance Fund with a scandal for alleged violations. In one of her positions she was a deputy to my good friend, who told me that Duma is quite conspirological in her thinking, and that she spent years in the security services. Duma has a history of being engaged with people in Ukraine who were trying to attack the incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden, through his son Hunter Biden. I’ve met Duma ones, but we were accompanied by several people and did not discuss anything related to work. G7 Ambassadors to Ukraine have been following the ARMA appointment process carefully and have issued a statement, noting the Civil Society concerns over the procedures taken and insisting that due procedures have to be followed to build confidence in ARMA.

Have a peaceful weekend.

Iuliia Mendel