Ukraine Update September 17-23
Hi everyone!
I hope you are having a great weekend. Here's a weekly update on the top Ukraine news from the past week.
Undoubtedly, President Zelenskyy's trip to the United States, Canada, Ireland, and Poland has caused the most buzz. This is the second trip to Washington during the war. His passionate speeches at the UN, and in front of American and Canadian audiences emphasized that the war of the Russians against Ukrainians has clear signs of genocide, that the war crimes of the Russians must be punished - these were strong messages in defense of Ukraine that the world heard.
It was important to discuss the situation on the frontline with President Biden and to meet with Penny Pritzker, the special representative for Ukraine's economic recovery.
In general, it is obvious that the economy has begun to take much more attention from international partners. This was emphasized by Prime Minister Trudeau. And The Economist wrote that "rather than aiming to win and then recover, the goal should be to ensure that Ukraine is strong enough to fight a long war and can prosper despite it."
However, despite the large aid packages and assurances that the United States and Canada will stand with Ukraine to the end, it was clear that the 2024 elections are already having an impact on international relations. And it's not just the ban on Zelenskyy speaking in Congress. There is a huge rise of political populism that tries to drag Ukraine into elections for the third time in a row. I am afraid we will all need to be very cautious about it.
Meanwhile, important messages come from important journalists that show that Ukraine might experience changes in the next months. Jamie Dettmer at Politico Europe recently wrote a summary: "And now, another November is almost upon us, and soon the autumn rains will come to Ukraine, making military maneuver that much more difficult. Signs are that if Ukraine hasn't secured a breakthrough on its southern front and broken all three layers of Russia's formidable Surovikin Line by then - something that has so far eluded the country's forces in three months of fierce fighting - calls for negotiations will mount as a year of elections in both Europe and the U.S. looms, altering the internal political dynamics of allies."
I think this is one of the important things that people forget to say at press conferences after the talks. The New York Times came out with an article saying that Zelenskyy's visit revealed a strategic divide between Ukraine and the United States.
"While the Ukrainian military remains focused on retaking territory in the east, American officials are pushing for a shift to the south." - the Times wrote.
The Wall Street Journal editor Yaroslav Trofimov in contrast stayed positive about Ukraine's actions and analyzed that in 10 days, Ukraine:
1. Destroyed a submarine and a warship by hitting a Sevastopol dry dock
2 . Reopened unilateral commercial shipping to Odesa
3. Hit a Sevastopol bunker with the back-up Black Sea Fleet HQ
4. Struck the main HQ in central Sevastopol.
I had a personal conversation with a colonel from the frontlines. He was not very positive about the counteroffensive, explaining that Russians are not just watching inactive Ukraine moving forward - they keep mining new territories and building new lines of defense. He has information only from the southern frontlines, so he was not generalizing.
Zelenskyy's trip was accompanied by important news about a small number of ATACAMs, which the Biden administration was finally able to insist on during the growing political tensions in the United States. Canada promised to train Ukrainian pilots on F16s.
But there was also scandalous news from Ukraine. The Anti-Corruption Society and some international media simultaneously came out with corruption investigations that named both the head of Zelenskyy's office and his deputies.
Corruption accusations continue to plague top Zelenskyy aides - this was the headline of a Reuters investigation that had been in the works for months. CBC focused on the general public and wrote that "a survey by two Kyiv pollsters released on Sept. 11 found that 78 percent of Ukrainians hold Zelenskiy accountable for government corruption. A related poll found that 55 percent believe Western military aid should be conditional on fighting corruption."
These issues were high on the agenda of the talks, as Ukraine's anti-corruption community is demanding action on corruption. The situation is complicated by Russian propaganda and right-wing radical forces in other countries. It is a challenge to support Ukraine to be honest about the fight against corruption. Although this news is considered outrageous, it is usually seen as a success in more developed countries. For example, on September 22, the United States Attorney's Office released the news that U.S. Senator Robert Menendez, His Wife, And Three New Jersey Businessmen Have Been Charged With Bribery Offenses.
Let’s see how Zelenskyy will react and what the independent anticorruption institutions will say. They had been visiting Washington D.C. just a week earlier.
It is important that populists in politics and the media raise the question of who is to blame for the war in Ukraine and the protracted counteroffensive. In my opinion, these questions are beneficial as a distraction, because the analysis shows that it was difficult to prepare for the war even with a lot of information. But only the Putin regime and the military, which is committing genocide on Ukrainian territory, are guilty of all war crimes and the war.
I would also like to draw your attention to the story of my family, which in many ways resonates with the stories of millions of people across Ukraine.
With that, I wish you a good end to the weekend,
Iuliia