Happy New Year, December 25-31, 2023

Dear subscribers,

First, let me thank you for reading this blog for over a year. Every time, Substack sends me the data, the newsletter is always read by around 90% of subscribers – almost everyone.

Thank you for paying attention to my country, for your support and for your hope.

The end of the year is the time for conclusions. Some of them might surprise you.

But before that let me remind you that Vladimir Putin is repeating himself this year. Despite the news coming from the New York Times and Politico that Putin is looking for a ceasefire, he started massive aerial attacks (his form of New Year “greetings”) on Ukraine on the same date as last year - December 29^th.

Yesterday, Russian forces launched 110 missiles of different types and kamikaze drones against various Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv. At least 30 people were killed and 160 wounded, all civilians.

My cousin spent last night in the metro station again, my friend Sasha took his girlfriend to Odesa as her house doesn't have a bomb shelter. Early in the morning he sent me a selfie from an underground parking lot. My other friend Anya, in Kyiv, was locked in her apartment for half of a day, as one of Russian missiles that fell near her house failed to detonate and was being defused.

I'll be frank, it is ugly to see the populism in the U.S. Senate, where comparisons are drawn between the Russian threat to Ukrainian border and immigrants who try to reach the U.S. via the Mexican border.

Many Ukrainians feel depressed. Last week, one political decision caused a lot of outrage. The bill on mobilization (according to my sources, written mostly by the MPs, not the General Staff) suggested very harsh norms on drafting people for compulsory service on the frontline. This bill is only at draft stage, but it has provisions that would put men eligible for conscription at risk of losing their basic rights, such as losing the right to freely dispose of their property, having their bank accounts frozen or even their driver’s license annulled. As envisaged by the bill, the military commissions handling the mobilization would have the powers to impose such measures as punishments for perceived non-compliance from the citizens.

With huge demographic crisis and fragile attempts by many Ukrainian families to pretend to have a normal life throughout the war, this draft legislation was met with anger, fear, and outrage. Earlier, President Zelenskyy had announced that 500,000 more men needed to be mobilized in the course of 2024, according to the military. This number was not confirmed by the Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyy who was called for a briefing on the mobilization bill to try to calm Ukrainians down.

The draft, which is expected to be voted in the Parliament already in January, is deeply problematic. According to Ukraine’s ombudsman, some of its norms contradict the Constitution. Looking at the public reaction, I am afraid that it can increase illegal emigration, shadow draft dodging practices, and put pressure on the financial system, if people start withdrawing their money into cash. On the third day of hot discussions, the Minister of Finance said that Ukraine just doesn't have any money for the implementation of extra mobilization measures. Certainly, a lot of issues need to be addressed in this newly proposed legislation, before it can become viable.

In the meantime, the EU is preparing a back-up plan worth up to €20bn for Ukraine, using a debt structure that sidesteps the objections of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán about funding the war-torn country.

After EU leaders failed to agree a proposed €50bn four-year package for Ukraine earlier this month, officials have searched for alternatives to save Kyiv from a looming budget crisis if the bloc’s differences cannot be resolved.

The failure of the counteroffensive to yield significant results in 2023 has apparently led to a drop in political approval ratings in Ukraine. Recent surveys, including more detailed non-public ones that I’ve seen, show that “strong approval” for President Zelenskyy hovers around 30-40%, with 20-30% of respondents expressing “partial approval”, with one poll in particular that included Ukrainian refugees abroad pointing to the lower end of these numbers. Net approval of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Parliament is already deeply negative. In November, 35% of Ukrainians said that the country was moving in the wrong direction, up from 9% in February (46% still considered that the country was moving in the right direction, compared to 77% in February). The only institution that seems to be immune to this drop in approval are the Armed Forces and their Commander in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyy. All the polls show “strong approval” over 80% for him and for the military in general.

Family news: on Christmas my parents have adopted a cat that survived Russian shelling and an attack by dogs. It’s a baby cat proudly named Bonya (Bonifacius) and will stay in the apartment of my parents in Kherson as their new pet. For me it’s a symbol of how Ukrainians preserve life throughout the war.

We are looking forward to the New Year, keeping hope deep in our hearts and believing that we will be able to save Ukraine. With a tough multi-election year ahead, I wish all of us prioritize substance over the form and stay committed to our values.

Don't forget about the book The Fight of Our Lives. It tells a lot about the Russian invasion and the pre-war Ukraine.

Happy New Year!

Iuliia