Ukraine Update, Nov 13-19, 2023

Hello everyone, I hope you are enjoying your weekend. It's time for our weekly update from Ukraine.

At least five people are wounded, including a 3-year-old girl, after Russians shelled a residential neighborhood. The child is in hospital with injuries to her neck and legs. Women aged 47, 55 and 68 were also injured. They were hospitalized in moderate condition. A 59-year-old man sustained shrapnel wounds.

Russia also attacked Kyiv and the capital, damaging power supply facilities, most of the kamikaze drones were shot down. Every day the Russian army shells 100 to 150 settlements in 9-10 regions of Ukraine. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Western countries to remain committed to the aid they have promised. The aid package for Ukraine will not be voted on in the US Congress until at least mid-December, and other Western countries, such as Germany, are having problems as well.

US President Joe Biden published an opinion piece in the Washington Post comparing Ukraine to Israel, emphasizing the US commitment to supporting democratic countries in the fight against ”the challenge of Putin and Hamas.”

“We know from two world wars in the past century that when aggression in Europe goes unanswered, the crisis does not burn itself out. It draws America in directly. That’s why our commitment to Ukraine today is an investment in our own security. It prevents a broader conflict tomorrow. We are keeping American troops out of this war by supporting the brave Ukrainians defending their freedom and homeland. We are providing them with weapons and economic assistance to stop Putin’s drive for conquest, before the conflict spreads farther.” – he wrote.

President Biden wrote this opinion after his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed,” Xi told Biden.

The U.S. president told Xi: “I think it’s paramount that you and I understand each other clearly, leader-to-leader, with no misconceptions or miscommunications. We have to ensure competition does not veer into conflict.”  

There hasn't been much news about talks regarding Russia's war against Ukraine, but this may be a good sign. After all, the most important issues often remain in the background in communication. Xi has the most influence on Putin these days, and there is still hope that he will want to change the situation in this war.

Russia and Ukraine have stopped exchanging prisoners of war. The last message about the exchange from the Ukrainian headquarters was published on August 7. Back then, 22 Ukrainian soldiers returned home. Previously, exchanges took place almost every month. Ukraine is ready to exchange prisoners. Our pre-trial detention centers are constantly filling up. The conditions in which Ukrainian defenders are held in Russia are much worse than those offered by Ukraine as a European country that adheres to the Third Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Some victories are cautiously reported from the front. Ukrainian soldiers are on the left bank of the Kherson region.  There are great chances of success there, which warms my heart because it is my home region. One of the reasons for concern is that the Russians may move more troops from Donbas to the region. In this case, they will dominate, and it will be very difficult to achieve any success there.

A mature approach to Ukraine means serious conversation and progress on the following issues:

1. A new design for the economy, which will mean a real fight against corruption, sustainable reforms and a favorable environment for investors and domestic businesses. No economy means no return of Ukrainians and no strong army.

2. Security guarantees. I am sure that if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear arsenal in 1994, Russia would never have attacked. This means that if the US and UK are serious guarantors of security, real solutions must be sought. Otherwise, the papers they sign mean nothing. There are thoughts of NATO soldiers on the border with Russia or a demarcation line. This will prevent Russia from moving forward. Ukraine also needs to continue to bring standards in line with NATO.

3. Develop a mechanism to seize Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine. Russia, not Western taxpayers, must pay for the destruction.

4. Working to bring war criminals to justice. The demand for justice is enormous. The democratic world must show that its institutions are strong and stand for democracy and justice.

Talking about justice. Putin could face new war crime case as evidence suggests starvation of Ukraine was pre-planned Purchases by Russian defence contractor suggest Moscow was planning to steal vast quantities of Ukrainian grain months before troops ever crossed the border. Read more here.

The most serious problem facing post-war Ukraine is the huge population loss caused by the war, primarily through refugees. Regardless of how long the war lasts and whether the war escalates further, Ukraine will probably never be able to recover from the demographic consequences of the war, according to another study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Comparison, conducted in cooperation with the Bertelsmann Stiftung. Even in 2040, Ukraine is projected to have about 35 million inhabitants, about 20% fewer than before the war.

Top German journalist received €600,000 from Putin ally, leak reveals. Influential author and broadcaster Hubert Seipel received financial support for his work on two books described by many as sympathetic to Russian president. The case is one of the first linking an influential western journalist with significant payments in what could be seen by some as attempts by pro-Putin actors to secure positive coverage in the international media, The Guardian reported.

Ukraine's experience shows that Putin has always sought out journalists with Western experience and paid them big bucks to present the worst Russian propaganda to Western audiences in the best possible cover.

Don't let that you can read about Ukraine and Putin's disinformation in my book The Fight Of Our Lives that was out last year.

Wishing you a peaceful weekend,

Iuliia Mendel,

Knight Wallace fellow,

Distinguished WCEE fellow 2023-2024.